Here are three investment cases iCapital identified by seeing things differently from the crowd and looking further ahead than the next few quarters.
| Case | Type of opportunity | Core insight |
|---|---|---|
| VIP – VIPCO Petroleum Transport | Cheap assets at the bottom of the cycle | Cash plus the fleet were worth far more than the market cap |
| DDV – DAP – Vinachem | Shift in global supply and demand | China’s ore shortage keeps DAP prices high, while DDV has access to cheap ore |
| VRE – Vincom Retail | Cheap assets with catalysts | Priced below asset value and replacement cost |
1. VIP – Buying cheap assets at the bottom of the shipping cycle
Insight
- Cheaper than its assets: cash plus the value of the fleet far exceeded the market cap, and the company carried almost no debt.
- Bought at the bottom of the cycle: earnings were low because tanker rates were weak, so the market paid little attention. Shipping, however, is cyclical, and historically its cycles have turned.
- High margin of safety: if the downturn dragged on, the assets protected investors; once the cycle turned, earnings could rebound sharply.
What happened: in 2022, tanker rates surged after the Russia–Ukraine conflict broke out. VIP’s profit jumped, along with gains from vessel sales and a high cash dividend.
2. DDV – Spotting a structural shift in the global fertilizer market
Insight – a five-step chain of reasoning:
- China is short of ore: small reserves, capped mining, plus new demand from electric-vehicle batteries (LFP).
- DAP prices stay high: Chinese producers without their own mines set the global price floor; when ore costs rise, DAP prices follow.
- Demand exceeds supply: China restricts exports to serve its home market, opening up market share for other producers.
- DDV has a cost moat: its domestic ore costs 30–40% less than the market price.
- Company-specific drivers line up: the new VAT law allows producers to reclaim input VAT, the plant is fully depreciated, and export volumes are growing.
→ Result: a sharp rise in earnings.
What happened: in 2025, DAP selling prices rose by more than 20%, exports made up nearly 70% of volume, the plant was fully depreciated and the 5% VAT rate took effect. DDV’s net profit rose almost 3.6 times, exceeding even iCapital’s forecast.
3. VRE – Cheap relative to its assets, with catalysts from the Vingroup group
Insight
- Cheap versus the market value of its assets: valued at prices of comparable property transactions, the mall network was worth well above the market cap.
- Cheap versus replacement cost: building a similar network would take many years, and prime central land is almost impossible to replicate.
- Catalysts from the Vingroup group: moves at group level could help the market recognise VRE’s value sooner. Whichever direction the group took, VRE – with steady rental cash flow and low leverage – remained the lower-risk choice within the group.
What happened: in 2024, a large share transaction in VRE took place at about 20% above the market price, confirming the asset value the market had overlooked.
4. What the three cases have in common
- Insight from research down to the root: understanding an industry from raw materials and cost curves to policy.
- Long-term vision: willing to invest when earnings are at the bottom.
- Independent thinking: asking different questions from the crowd.
- Margin of safety first: buying below asset value or cash-flow value.
Conclusion
Good opportunities rarely come from news everyone already knows. They come from understanding an industry more deeply, being more patient, and daring to think differently. That is how iCapital continues to build its research and investment practice.
This post shares our research approach and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Past results are not indicative of future results.